![]() There is scope to build on Gabon’s session and bring in new evidence from the African continent. Some experts following this Council meeting noted that the persuasive evidence offered by African countries made the subsequent statements by Russia and India (arguing that climate change belonged exclusively in the realm of economic development and the UNFCCC) feel out of sync with reality. Gabon held the only formal climate-security session in the UN Security Council in all of 2022, during which a significant amount of empirical evidence from the African continent was provided, supporting Ghana’s point that there is now a sufficient enough link between climate and security to require action by the Security Council. The AU Peace and Security Council has adopted a common position on climate change and peace and security in Africa, offering a possible model for the UN to do something similar. African member states have played a leading role in integrating climate change into peace work, with the African Union (AU) meeting nine times in the past several years on this topic. ![]() The so-called African Three or “A3” group are the three elected African members, which this year are Mozambique, Ghana, and Gabon. The lesson here seems clear, and unlikely to change over the course of the year: avoid an omnibus resolution (for now) and focus instead on incremental progress via country-specific settings where there is strong evidence. ![]() This includes Germany’s 2020 open debate on climate security and the joint Ireland/Niger effort in December 2021 to adopt a thematic resolution. Recent efforts to pass an omnibus resolution that would recognize a general relationship between climate change and security-and importantly place climate change more consistently on the Council’s agenda-have failed. Instead of agreeing on so-called thematic resolutions that would acknowledge a categorical relationship between climate change and security, the Council has moved forward incrementally through resolutions on the Lake Chad Basin, Mali, Darfur, and West Africa, recognizing only country/region-specific impacts. Early attempts to make broad claims about the impacts of climate change on security risks were qualified as “possible” adverse effects that “may, in the long run, aggravate” threats to peace and security. Since climate change and security was first put on the Security Council’s agenda 15 years ago, the relationship between the two has only been narrowly recognized by the UN body. If the ten elected members of the Council (E10) wish to advance the climate issue in 2023, they could consider the following six approaches. But given the accelerating impacts of climate change around the world, and increasing recognition that climatic factors are indeed affecting a wide range of areas that can drive security risks, the issue is becoming increasingly unavoidable. It is very possible that the coming year could witness even deeper entrenchment, bringing prospects for advancing climate-related issues down with it. ![]() ![]() Indeed, even the term “climate and security” is fraught, given the indirect links between climatic factors and the risks of violent conflict. Efforts to include “climate, peace and security” on the regular agenda of the Council in recent years have failed, and deep polarization within the Council over the war in Ukraine means the scope of agreement on new issues may be very narrow. Even the newly elected Mozambique, which historically has strong energy ties with Russia, has recently stressed the links between climatic factors and the rise of armed groups designated as terrorist in its territory, and now co-chairs the Informal Expert Group on climate security in the Council (together with the United Arab Emirates and Switzerland). And while strong climate, peace and security advocates like Kenya, Ireland, and Norway have rotated out, the incoming elected members include some likely supporters such as Switzerland, Malta, Ecuador, and Japan. The two-year terms of elected Council members like India, which have been outspoken opponents of including climate change on the Council’s agenda, have ended, and Brazil’s newly elected government is likely to be a bit more open to discussing some specific impacts of climate change. (AP Photo/Jerome Delay)Ģ023 could be a good year for advancing climate-related issues in the United Nations Security Council. People arrive at a displacement camp on the outskirts of Dollow, Somalia, on Sept. ![]()
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